What is the Brexit-crucial Letwin amendment?
On this vital day in the UK’s House of Commons, MPs will potentially decide whether or not to back the Brexit deal Boris Johnson has negotiated with the EU. One of the key votes will be the Letwin amendment.
Who is Oliver Letwin?
A former adviser to Margaret Thatcher and a Conservative MP since 1997, Sir Oliver Letwin is among many MPs to have been ousted by Johnson when they had the whip removed - effectively expelling them from the party, although they keep their seat in parliament - over opposition to Johnson’s plans.
Letwin, who has announced that he will stand down at the end of this parliament - whenever that is - has been a chief architect behind parliamentary legislation aimed to prevent, or at least slow down, the no-deal Brexit favoured by hardline Brexiteers.
How do amendments work?
Filed before parliament votes on a government-suggested bill (which is what draft legislation is called before it is passed into law), amendments are proposals to change, remove or augment their wording. In this way, they act as a parliamentary check on government’s intended legislation.
Any number of amendments can be put forward, but only a certain number are voted upon. This selection process is done by the Speaker of the House, currently John Bercow, who reveals at the start of the bill’s reading which amendments the house will vote upon.
What is the Letwin amendment?
Parliamentary amendments can be shrouded in unclear language but in essence, Letwin’s amendment would withhold parliamentary approval for Johnson’s deal until the legislation implementing the UK’s withdrawal has become law.
Letwin himself has called the amendment an “insurance policy” to create an extension. He argues it is necessary to prevent the UK unintentionally crashing out without a deal. Some MPs suspect that if Johnson’s deal is passed today, the government would then be free of the current restrictions on it being legally able to pull Britain out of Europe without a deal.
What if Letwin’s amendment passes?
If the Letwin amendment goes through, the government would be bound by the provisions of the earlier Benn Act - already voted into the country’s legislation, as noted by its title as an Act (of law).
Officially known as the European Union (Withdrawal) (No 2) Act, the Benn Act ensures that Johnson would not be able to present MPs with a binary choice of his deal and a no-deal Brexit; instead, Johnson would be forced to write to the EU - before 11pm on Saturday evening - to request an extension to 31 January 2020.
What if Letwin’s amendment doesn’t pass?
No Deal would be a possibility, but not a certainty: the government would still seek parliamentary approval for Johnson’s deal. However, as Letwin’s amendment is essentially a braking mechanism, rejecting it would presumably speed Brexit towards a conclusion, one way or the other.
Is Letwin’s amendment likely to pass?
Ever since the initial referendum, which was expected to be a relatively easy win for the Remain camp and arguably only ever designed to end the debate on European membership, it has been a fool’s errand to make predictions around Brexit.
However, compared to the decision on Johnson’s deal, which is expected to be so incredibly tight that it may even go down to two or three votes either way, Parliament-watchers are fairly confidently expecting Letwin’s amendment to pass.
The opposition parties will back it, whether through hardline antagonism to Brexit (Liberal Democrats, SNP) or the Conservatives themselves (Labour). Not even all Conservatives - especially those who had the whip removed - are likely to back Johnson and oppose Letwin. There are also those who back Johnson’s deal but think it needs more scrutiny.
Sources at 10 Downing Street have said that if the Letwin amendment passes, MPs will be sent home: “A vote for Letwin means MPs voting to render the entire day, that they demanded, meaningless”. If so, they would likely vote on Johnson’s deal on Monday instead.
